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We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical.

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes.

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

Update: 8/10/13-- The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

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