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U.S. Markets and Mood - July 2007

In July, the economic focus is on practical matters. The mood is somber. There is some concern whether things are going in the “right direction.” The world is watching what looks to them as the demise of the U.S. economy. The response to economic stress is to run from anything suggestive of recession or depression, increasing spending, making deals, and other hypomanic efforts to insure that growth and expansion are still occurring. Another response to difficult news would be an increase in the conciliatory tone of diplomatic effort, and appeasing or comforting those at home.

The U.S. Dollar loses any appearance of strength this month. While the US government turns up efforts at diplomacy and peacemaking. There is a heightened vulnerability towards reacting to domestic stress with external conflict – picking a fight would not be out of the question to distract from problems at home.

Crude Oil: A lessening of bullish factors should lead to a price ceiling. The climb in prices is “empty” – greed chasing its own tail and is difficult to sustain. The bias for the month is for a price decline; however, the market is very sensitive. Any threats or potential threats to supply will send the market climbing.

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