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Personality of the Stock Market - July

In July, the economic focus is on practical matters. The mood is somber. There is some concern whether things are going in the “right direction.” The world is watching what looks to them like the demise of the U.S. economy. The response to economic stress is to run from anything suggestive of recession or depression, increasing spending, making deals, and other hypo-manic efforts to insure that growth and expansion are still occurring. Another response to difficult news would be an increase in the conciliatory tone of diplomatic effort, and appeasing or comforting those at home.

Week 1: Relative to the overall month, there is an increase in the level of overt optimism, in spite of a growing, nagging background increase in pessimism. This is a week of denial of the “big picture.” The preferred focus is international growth rather than domestic frailty.

Week 2: This week, the sky grows darker as the gathering storm clouds are more difficult to ignore. There is far less optimism and more cynicism this week relative to the overall month. This could manifest in the markets as lower stocks, and in society as an increase in "depressing" news.

This is all I have put together so far. I'll get to the rest of July in the next few days. This impression comes from looking at the "personality" of the stock market for the month of July using the tools we developed at A New Story Foundation. Week 1 has already passed. Week 2 is about to begin. It all sounds so ominous when I write it out this way. Numbers and graphs are safer, but sterile and clinical. I have to wonder if I am exagerating. This is a new experiment.

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July 2015


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