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Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later.  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

(click to enlarge)



Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

(click to enlarge)

Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.

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The above is an excerpt from the daily blog: Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Markets.



For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on undefined.



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